{"id":19,"date":"2020-05-26T09:17:11","date_gmt":"2020-05-26T09:17:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/tawn\/?page_id=19"},"modified":"2022-01-30T19:28:26","modified_gmt":"2022-01-30T19:28:26","slug":"publications","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/tawn\/publications\/","title":{"rendered":"Publications"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Methodological Journal Papers<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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  1. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1988). Bivariate extreme value theory: models and estimation. Biometrika, 75, 397-415.<\/li>
  2. Smith, R. L., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Yuen, H. K. (1990). Statistics of multivariate extremes, Int. Statist. Rev., 58, 47-58.<\/li>
  3. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1990). Modelling multivariate extreme value distributions. Biometrika, 77, 245-253.<\/li>
  4. Coles, S. G. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1990). Statistics of coastal flood prevention, Phil. Trans Roy. Soc. (Lond), A, 332, 457-476.<\/li>
  5. Coles, S. G. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1991). Modelling extreme multivariate events, J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 53, 377-392.<\/li>
  6. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1992). Estimating probabilities of extreme sea-levels, Appl. Statist., 41, 77-93.<\/li>
  7. Coles, S. G. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1994). Statistical methods for multivariate extremes: an application to structural design (with discussion), Appl. Statist., (1994), 43, 1-48.<\/li>
  8. Coles, S. G., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Smith, R. L. (1994). A seasonal Markov model for extremely low temperatures, Environmetrics, 5, 221-239.<\/li>
  9. Dixon, M. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1995). A semi-parametric model for multivariate extreme values, Statist. and Comput., 5, 215-225.<\/li>
  10. Robinson, M. E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1995). Statistics for exceptional athletics records, Appl. Statist, 44, 499-511.<\/li>
  11. Coles, S. G. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1996). Modelling extremes of the areal rainfall process, J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 58, 329-347.<\/li>
  12. Ledford, A. W. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1996). Statistics for near independence in multivariate extreme values Biometrika, (1996), 83, 169-187.<\/li>
  13. Coles, S. G. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1996). A Bayesian analysis of extreme rainfall data, Appl. Statist., 45, 463-478.<\/li>
  14. Ledford, A. W. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1997). Modelling dependence within joint tail regions, J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 59, 475-499.<\/li>
  15. Robinson, M. E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1997). Statistics for extreme sea-currents, Appl. Statist., 46, 183-205.<\/li>
  16. Smith, R. L., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Coles, S. G. (1997). Markov chain models for threshold exceedances, Biometrika, 84, 249-268.<\/li>
  17. Nadarajah, S., Anderson, C. W. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1998). Ordered multivariate extremes, J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 60, 473-496.<\/li>
  18. Ledford, A. W. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1998). Concomitant tail behaviour for extremes. Adv. Appl. Probab., 30, 197-215.<\/li>
  19. Dixon, J. M., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Vassie, J. M. (1998). Spatial modelling of extreme sea-levels, Environmetrics, 9, 283-301.<\/li>
  20. Diggle, P. J., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Moyeed, R. A. (1998). Model-based geostatistics (with discussion), Appl. Statist., 47, 299-350.<\/li>
  21. Bruun, J. T. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1998). Comparison of approaches for estimating the probability of coastal flooding, Appl. Statist., 47, 405-423.<\/li>
  22. Bortot, P. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1998). Models for the extremes of Markov chains Biometrika, 85, 851-867.<\/li>
  23. Dixon, M. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1999). The effect of non-stationarity on extreme sea-level estimation, Appl. Statist., 48, 135-151.<\/li>
  24. Coles, S. G., Heffernan, J. E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1999). Dependence measures for extreme value analyses. Extremes, 2, 339-365.<\/li>
  25. Bar~ao, M. I. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1999). Extremal analysis of short series with outliers: sea-levels and athletic records. Appl. Statist., 48, 469-487.<\/li>
  26. Robinson, M. E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2000). The extremal analysis of processes sampled at different frequencies. J. R. Statist. Soc. B., 62, 117-135.<\/li>
  27. Bortot, P, Coles, S. G. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2000). The multivariate Gaussian tail model: an application to oceanographic data, Appl. Statist., 49, 31-49.<\/li>
  28. Navarette-Ancona, M. A. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2000). A comparison of methods for estimating the extremal index. Extremes. 3, 5-38.<\/li>
  29. Dupuis, D. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2001). Effects of mis-specification in bivariate extreme value problems. Extremes, 4, 315-330.<\/li>
  30. Heffernan, J. E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2001). Extreme value analysis of a large designed experiment: a case study in bulk carrier safety. Extremes, 4, 359-378.<\/li>
  31. Schlather, M. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2002). Inequalities for the extremal coefficients of multi-variate extreme value distributions. Extremes, 5, 87-102.<\/li>
  32. Schlather, M. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2003). A dependence measure for multivariate and spatial extreme values: properties and inference. Biometrika, 90, 139-156.<\/li>
  33. Ledford, A. W. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2003). Diagnostics for dependence within time series extremes. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 65, 521-543.<\/li>
  34. Heffernan, J. E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2003). An extreme value analysis for the investigation into the sinking of the M.V. Derbyshire. Applied Statistics, 52, 337-354.<\/li>
  35. Ancona-Navarrete, M. A. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2003). Diagnostics for pairwise extremal dependence in spatial processes. Extremes, 5, 271-285.<\/li>
  36. Poon, S.-H., Rockinger, M. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2003). New extreme-value dependence measures and finance applications. Statistica Sinica, 13, 929-953.<\/li>
  37. Laurini, F. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2003). New estimators for the extremal index and other cluster characteristics. Extremes, 6, 189-211.<\/li>
  38. Heffernan, J. E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2004). A conditional approach to modelling multivariate extreme values (with discussion) J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 66, 497-547.<\/li>
  39. Stephenson, A. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2004). Exploiting occurrence times in likelihood inference for componentwise maxima. Biometrika, 92, 213-227.<\/li>
  40. Stephenson, A. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2005). Bayesian inference for extremes: accounting for the three extremal types. Extremes, 7, 291-307.<\/li>
  41. Coles, S. G. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2005). Bayesian modelling extreme surges on the UK east coast. Phil.Trans. Roy. Soc. A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 363, 1387-1406.<\/li>
  42. Butler, A., Heffernan, J. E., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Flather, R. A. (2007). Trend estimation in extremes of North Sea surges. Applied Statistics, 56, 395-414.<\/li>
  43. Heffernan, J. E., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Zhang, Z. (2007). Asymptotically (in)dependent multivariate maxima of moving maxima processes. Extremes, 10, 57-82.<\/li>
  44. Menezes, R. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2009). Assessing the effect of clustered and biased multi-stage sampling. Environmetrics, 20, 445-459.<\/li>
  45. Eastoe, E. F. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2009). Modelling non-stationary extremes with application to surface-level ozone. Appl. Statist., 58, 25 – 45.<\/li>
  46. Keef, C., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Svensson, C. (2009). Spatial risk assessment for extreme river flows. Appl. Statist., 58, 601-618.<\/li>
  47. Fearnhead, P. Wyncoll, D and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2010). A sequential smoothing algorithm with linear computational cost. Biometrika, 97, 447-464.<\/li>
  48. Wadsworth, J.L., Tawn, J.A.<\/strong> and Jonathan, P. (2010). Accounting for choice of measurement scale in extreme value modeling. Annals of Applied Statistics, 4, 1558-1578.<\/li>
  49. Adam, M. B. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2011). Modification of Pickands’ dependence function for ordered bivariate extreme value distribution. Communications in Statistics, Theory and Methods, 40, 1687-1700.<\/li>
  50. Eastoe, E. F and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2012). Modelling the distribution of the cluster maxima of exceedances of sub-asymptotic thresholds. Biometrika, 99, 43-55.<\/li>
  51. Wadsworth, J. L. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2012). Dependence modelling for spatial extremes. Biometrika, 99, 253-272.<\/li>
  52. Wadsworth, J. L. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2012). Likelihood-based procedures for threshold diagnostics and uncertainty in extreme value modelling. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 74, 543-567.<\/li>
  53. Grigg, O. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2012). Threshold models for extremes in the presence of covariates with application to river flows. Environmetrics, 23, 295-305.<\/li>
  54. Papastathopoulos, I. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2012). A generalised Student’s t-distribution. Statist. Prob. Letters, 3, 70-77.<\/li>
  55. Laurini, F. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2012). The extremal index for GARCH(1,1) processes. Extremes, 15, 511-529.<\/li>
  56. Adam, M. B. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2012). Bivariate extreme analysis of Olympic swimming data. Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, 6, 510-523.<\/li>
  57. Keef, C., Papastathopoulos, I. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2013). Estimation of the conditional distribution of a vector variable given that one of its components is large: additional constraints for the Heffernan and Tawn model. J. Mult. Anal., 115, 396-404.<\/li>
  58. Papastathopoulos, I. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2013). Extended generalised Pareto models for tail estimation. J. Statist. Plann. and Inf., 143, 131-143.<\/li>
  59. Liu, Y. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2013). Volatility model selection for extremes of financial time series. J. Statistical Planning and Inference, 143, 520-530.<\/li>
  60. Keef, C., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Lamb, R. (2013). Estimating the probability of widespread flood events. Environmetrics, 24, 13-21.<\/li>
  61. Wadsworth, J. L. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2013). A new representation for multivariate tail probabilities. Bernoulli, 19, 2689- 2714.<\/li>
  62. Eastoe, E. F., Heffernan, J. E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2014). Nonparametric estimation of the spectral measure, and associated dependence measures, for multivariate extreme values using a limiting conditional representation. Extremes, 17, 25-43<\/li>
  63. Wadsworth, J. L. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2014). Efficient inference for spatial extreme value processes associated to log-Gaussian random functions. Biometrika, 101, 1-15<\/li>
  64. Liu, Y. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2014). Self-consistent estimation of conditional multivariate extreme distributions. J. Mult. Anal., 127, 19- 35.<\/li>
  65. Hilala, S., Ser-Huang Poon, and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2014) Portfolio risk assessment using multivariate extreme value methods. Extremes, 17, 531-556<\/li>
  66. Papastathopoulos, I. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2014). Dependence properties of multivariate maxstable distributions. J. Mult. Analysis, 130, 134-140.<\/li>
  67. Papastathopoulos, I. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2015). Stochastic ordering under conditional modelling of extreme values: drug induced liver injury. Applied Statistics, 64, 299-317.<\/li>
  68. Adam, M. B. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2016). Modelling record times in sport with extreme value methods. Malaysian J. Math, Sci, 10, 1-21<\/li>
  69. Winter, H.C. and Tawn, J .A.<\/strong> (2016). Modelling heatwaves in Central France: a case study in extremal dependence. Applied Statistics, 65, 345-365.<\/li>
  70. Papastathopoulos, I. and Tawn, J. A. <\/strong>(2016). Conditional limit laws for inverted max-stable processes. J. Mult. Anal., 150, 214-228.<\/li>
  71. Lugrin, T., Davison, A.C. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2016). Bayesian uncertainty management in temporal dependence of extremes. Extremes, 19, 491-515.<\/li>
  72. Winter, H.C., Tawn, J.A.<\/strong> and Brown, S. J. (2016). Modelling the effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation on extreme spatial temperature events over Australia. Annals of Applied Statistics, 10, 2075-2101.<\/li>
  73. Wadsworth, J. L., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Davison, A.C. and Elton, D. M. (2017). Modelling across extremal dependence classes. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 79, 149-175.(40)<\/li>
  74. Winter, H.C. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2017). k<\/em>th-order Markov extremal models for assessing heatwave risks. Extremes, 20, 393-415.(10)<\/li>
  75. Papastathopoulos, I., Strokorb, K., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Butler, A. (2017). Extreme events of Markov chains. Advances in Applied Probability, 49, 134-161.(10)<\/li>
  76. Kereszturi, M. and Tawn, J. A. <\/strong>(2017). Properties of extremal dependence models built on multivariate max-linearity. J. Mult. Anal., 155, 52-71.<\/li>
  77. Sharkey, P. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2017). A Poisson process reparameterisation for Bayesian inference for extremes. Extremes, 20, 239-263.<\/li>
  78. Towe, R., Eastoe, E., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Jonathan, P. (2017). Statistical downscaling for future extreme wave heights in the North Sea. Annals of Applied Statistics, 11, 2375-2403.<\/li>
  79. Rohrbeck, C., Eastoe, E., Frigessi, A. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2018). Extreme value modelling of water-related insurance claims. Annals of Applied Statistics, 12, 246-282.<\/li>
  80. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Shooter, R., Towe, R. and Lamb, R. (2018). Modelling spatial extreme events with environmental applications. Spatial Statistics, 28, 35-58.<\/li>
  81. Shooter, R., Ross, E., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Jonathan, P. (2019). On spatial conditional extremes for ocean storm severity. Environmetrics. DOI: 10.1002\/env.2562<\/li>
  82. Towe, R., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Lamb, R. and Sherlock, C. (2019). Model-based inference of conditional extreme value distributions with hydrological applications. Environmetrics. 30(8), DOI: 10.1002\/env.2575<\/li>
  83. Towe, R., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Eastoe, E. and Lamb, R. (2020). Modelling clustering of extreme events for short term risk assessment. J. Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 25, 32-53.<\/li>
  84. Sharkey, P., Tawn, J. A. <\/strong>and Brown, S. J. (2020). Modelling the spatial extent and severity of extreme European windstorms. Applied Statistics, 69, 223-250.<\/li>
  85. Simpson, E., Wadsworth, J. L. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2020). Determining the dependence structure of multivariate extremes. Biometrika, 107, 513-532.<\/li>
  86. Barlow, A., Sherlock, C., and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2020). Inference for extreme values under threshold-based stopping rules. Applied Statistics, 68, 765-789.<\/li>
  87. Rohrbeck, C. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2021). Bayesian spatial clustering of extremal behaviour for hydrological variables. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 30, 91-105.<\/li>
  88. Spearing, H. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Paulden, T., Irons, D. and Bennett, G. (2021). Ranking, and other properties, of elite swimmers using extreme value theory. J. Royal Statistical Soc., Series A, 184. 368-395.<\/li>
  89. Simpson, E., Wadsworth, J. L. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2021). A geometric investigation into the tail dependence of vine copulas. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 184, 104736.<\/li>
  90. Shooter, R., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Ross, E. and Jonathan, P. (2021). Basin-wide conditional spatial extremes for severe ocean storms. Extremes, 24, 241-265.<\/li>
  91. Lugrin, T., Davison, A. C. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2021). Sub-asymptotic results to motivate a new conditional multivariate extremes model. Stat, 10(1), e401, http:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sta4.401<\/li>
  92. Tendijck, S., Eastoe, E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Randell, D., and Jonathan, P. (2021). Modelling the extremes of bivariate mixture distributions with application to oceanographic data. To appear in J. American Statistical Association. DOI: 10.1080\/01621459.2021.1996379<\/li>
  93. Richards, J., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Brown, S. (2022). Modelling extremes of spatial aggregates of precipitation using conditional methods. To appear in Annals of Applied Statistics.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Application Journal Papers all refereed:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
    1. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1988). An extreme value theory model for dependent observations. J. Hydrology, 101, 227-250.<\/li>
    2. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Vassie, J. M. (1989). Extreme sea levels: the joint probabilities method, revisited and revised. Proc. Instn. Civ. Engrs. Part 2, 87, 429-442.<\/li>
    3. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Vassie, J. M. (1990). Spatial transfer of extreme sea level data for use in the revised joint probability method. Proc. Instn. Civ. Engrs. Part 2, 89, 433-438.<\/li>
    4. Dixon, M. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1992). Trends in U.K. extreme sea-levels: a spatial approach, Geophys. J. Int., 111, 607-616.<\/li>
    5. Anderson, C. W., Dwyer, I. J., Nadarajah, S, Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Reed, D. (1994). A problem of dependence in multivariate extremes, Ann. Geophysicae, 12, Supp. II, C393.<\/li>
    6. Cameron, D.S., Beven, K. J., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Blazkova, S. and Naden, P. (1999). Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty). J. Hydrology, 219, 169-187.<\/li>
    7. Cameron, D., Beven, K. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2000). An evaluation of three stochastic rainfall models. J. Hydrology, 228, 130-149.<\/li>
    8. Cameron, D., Beven, K., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Naden, P. (2000). Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation (with likelihood based uncertainty estimation). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 4, 23-34.<\/li>
    9. Cameron, D., Beven, K. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2000). Modelling extreme rainfalls using a modified random pulse Bartlett-Lewis stochastic rainfall model (with uncertainty). Advances in Water Resources, 24, 203-211.<\/li>
    10. Hawkes, P. J., Gouldby, B. P., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Owen, M. W. (2002). The joint probability of waves and water levels in coastal defence design. J. Hydraulic Research, 40, 241-251.<\/li>
    11. Poon, S.-H., Rockinger, M. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2004). Extreme-value dependence in financial markets: diagnostics, models and financial implications. Review of Financial Studies, 17, 581-610.<\/li>
    12. Coles, S. G. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2005). Seasonal effects of extreme surges. J. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 19, 417-427.<\/li>
    13. Smith, P., Beven, K., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Blazkova, S. and Ladislav, M. (2006). Discharge dependent pollutant dispersion in rivers: estimation of ADZ parameters with surrogate data. Water Resourse Research, 42, doi:10.1029\/2005WR004008.<\/li>
    14. Butler, A. Heffernan, J. E., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Flather, R. A. and Horsburgh, K. (2007). Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations. Journal of Marine Systems, 67, 189-200.<\/li>
    15. Smith, P. J. , Beven, K. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2008). The Detection Of Structural Inadequacy in Process Based Hydrological Models: A Particle Filtering Approach. Water Resources Research, 44.<\/li>
    16. Smith, P., Beven, K. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2008). Informal performance measures in model assessment: theoretic development and investigation, Advances in Water Resources, 31, 1087- 1100.<\/li>
    17. Smethurst, L., James, M., Pinkerton, H. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2009). A statistical analysis of eruptive activity on Mount Etna, Sicily. Geophys J. Int., 179, 655-666.<\/li>
    18. Keef, C., Svensson, C., and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2009). Spatial dependence in extreme river flows and precipitation in Great Britain. J. Hydrology., 378, 240-252.<\/li>
    19. Laurini, F. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2009). Extremal dependence of GARCH residuals with application to market risk measures. Economic Reviews, 28, 888-894.<\/li>
    20. Eastoe, E. F and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2010). Statistical models for over-dispersion in the frequency of peaks over threshold data from UK flow series. Water Resources Research, 46, W02510, doi:10.1029\/2009WR007757.<\/li>
    21. Lamb, R., Keef, C., Tawn, J.A.<\/strong> Laeger, S., Meadowcroft, I., Surendran, S., Dunning, P. and Batstone, C. (2010). A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts. J. Flood Risk Management, 3, 323336.<\/li>
    22. Hilal, S., Poon, S.-H. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2011). Hedging the Black Swan: Conditional Heteroscedasticity and Tail Dependence in S&P500 and VIX. Journal of Banking and Finance, 35, 2374-2387.<\/li>
    23. Stephenson, A. G. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2013). Determining the best track performances of all time using a conceptual population model for athletics records. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 9, 67-76.<\/li>
    24. Batstone, C., Lawless, M., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Horsburgh, K., Blackman, D. McMillan, A., Worth, D., Laeger, S., and Hunt, T. (2013). A UK best-practice approach for extreme sea level analysis along complex topographic coastlines. Ocean Engineering, 71, 28-39<\/li>
    25. Kereszturi, M., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Jonathan, P. (2016) Assessing extremal dependence of North Sea storm severity. Ocean Engineering, 118, 242-259.(13)<\/li>
    26. Winter, H. C., Brown, S. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2016). Characterising the changing behaviour of heatwaves with climate change. Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, 1, doi: 10.1093\/climsys\/dzw006<\/li>
    27. Gabda, D., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Brown, S. (2019). A step towards efficient inference for trends in UK extreme temperatures through distributional linkage between observations and climate model data. Natural Hazards, 98, 1135-1154.<\/li>
    28. Jonathan, P., Randell, D., Wadsworth, J. L. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2021). Uncertainties in return values from extreme value analysis of peaks over threshold using the generalised Pareto distribution. Ocean Engineering, 220, 107725.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      Refereed book chapters<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
      \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
      1. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Vassie, J. M. (1991). Recent improvements in the joint probabilities method for estimating extreme sea levels, in Tidal Hydrodynamics, (1991), ed. B. B. Parker, 813-828, Wiley.<\/li>
      2. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1993). Extreme sea-levels, in Statistics in the Environment, 243-263, eds. V. Barnett and F. Turkman, Wiley. <\/li>
      3. Dixon, M. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1994). Extreme sea-levels: modelling interaction between tide and surge, in Statistics for the Environment 2: Water Related Issues, 221-232, eds. V. Barnett and F. K. Turkman, Wiley: Chichester.<\/li>
      4. Romanowicz, R., Beven, K. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1994). Evaluation of predictive uncertainty in non-linear hydrological models using a Bayesian approach, in Statistics for the Environment 2: Water Related Issues, 297-317, eds. V. Barnett and F. K. Turkman, Wiley: Chichester.<\/li>
      5. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Dixon, M. J. and Woodworth, P. L. (1994). Trends in sea-levels, in Statistics for the Environment 2: Water Related Issues, 147-181, eds. V. Barnett and F. K. Turkman, Wiley: Chichester.<\/li>
      6. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1994). Applications of multivariate extreme values. In Extreme Value Theory and Applications, 249-268, eds. J. Galambos, J. Lechner and E. Simiu, Kluwer: Dordrecht.<\/li>
      7. Anderson, C. W., Dwyer, I. J., Nadarajah, S., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Reed, D. (1994). Maximum reservoir water levels, in Reservoir Safety and the Environment, 200-213, Thomas Telford: London.<\/li>
      8. Romanowicz, R., Beven, K. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1996). Bayesian calibration of flood inundation models, in Floodplain Processes, 333-360, eds. M. G. Anderson, D. E. Walling and P. D. Bates, John Wiley: Chichester.<\/li>
      9. Cameron, D., Beven, K. J., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, and Naden, P., (2002). Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation (with uncertainty), in Littlewood, I. (Ed.), Continuous river flow simulation: methods, applications and uncertainties, BHS Occasional Paper No. 13, 53-58.<\/li>
      10. Ancona-Navarrete, M. A. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2002). Modelling extreme rainfall events. In Spatial Statistics: Case Studies, eds. Montes, F. and Mateu, J., Witpress, Southampton, Boston, 175-201.<\/li>
      11. Liu, Y. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2016). Extreme risks of financial investments. In Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications, edited by D. K. Dey and J. Yan, 399-418, CRC Press.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        Discussion Contributions and Broad Appeal Articles<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
        1. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1987). Discussion of Cox, D. R. and Reid, N. Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 49, 33-34.<\/li>
        2. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1990). Discussion of Davison, A. C. and Smith, R. L., Models for exceedances over high thresholds. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 52, 428-429.<\/li>
        3. Ledford, A. W. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1995). Discussion of Cheng, R. C. H. and Traylor, L. Non-regular maximum likelihood problems, J. Roy. Statist. Soc., B, 57, 27-28.<\/li>
        4. Robinson, M. E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1997). Response to letter to the editor on Robinson and Tawn (1995), Appl. Statist., 46, 127-128.<\/li>
        5. Heffernan, J. E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2004). Extreme values in the dock. Significance, 1, 13-17.<\/li>
        6. Papastathopoulos, I., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Wadsworth, J. L. (2011). Discussion of: Threshold modelling of spatially-dependent non-stationary extremes with applications to hurricane-induced wave heights. Environmetrics, 22, 813-814.<\/li>
        7. Gabda, D., Towe, R., Wadsworth, J. L. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2012). Invited Discussion of “Statistical modelling of spatial extremes”. Statist. Sci., 27, 189-192.<\/li>
        8. Towe, R., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Lamb, R. (2018). How likely are flood events in England and Wales? Significance, 15, (6), 61-21.<\/li>
        9. D’Arcy, E. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2021). Discussion of “towards using state-of-the-art climate models to help constrain estimates of unprecedented UK storm surges” by Howard, T. and Williams, S.. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          Conference Papers<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
          1. Alcock, G. A., Blackman, D. L., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Vassie, J. M. (1987). Estimating extreme sea-levels. MAFF conference of River and Coastal Engineers, Loughborough.<\/li>
          2. Williams, J. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1991). Simulation of bedload transport of marine gravel, in Coastal Sediments ’91 Proceedings.<\/li>
          3. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Dixon, M. J. (1992). Trends in extreme sea-levels, 5th Int. Meeting on Statist. Clim., ed. F. Zwiers, Canadian Climate Centre, 313-318.<\/li>
          4. Dixon, M. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1992). Extreme sea-levels around the U.K., MAFF conference of River and Coastal Engineers, 4.1.1-4.1.11, Loughborough.<\/li>
          5. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Bruun, J. T. and Ledford, A. W. (1996). Statistics for multivariate extremes, in Bom Senso e Sensibilidade – Traves Mestas da Estatistica, 31-45, eds. J. Branco, P. Gomes and J. Prata. The 1995 Portuguese Statistical Conference Proceedings.<\/li>
          6. Owen, M. W., Hawkes, P. J., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Bortot, P. (1997). The joint probability of waves and water levels: a rigorous but practical new approach, MAFF conference of River and Coastal Engineers, B4.1-B4.10, Keele.<\/li>
          7. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Heffernan, J. E. (2001). Summary of statistical analysis of the seakeeping model tests, 41-54, of Proceedings of the Royal Institution of Naval Architects conference Design & Operation of Bulk Carriers – Post M.V. Derbyshire London.<\/li>
          8. Hawkes, P.J., Gouldby, B.P., Sun, W., Tawn, J.A.<\/strong>, Hames, D.P., Reeve, D., Blackman, D.L., Sproson, R. and Mavronasos, K. (2004). A comparison of marginal and joint extremes pre-dicted from synthesised wave and water level data. In Flood Risk Assessment: the Proceedings of the IMA Conference on Flood Risk Assessment, 65-74, IMA, Southend.<\/li>
          9. Butler, A., Heffernan, J.E., Flather, R.A. and Tawn, J.A.<\/strong> (2004). Spatial estimation of extremal trends in North Sea surge elevations. In Flood Risk Assessment: the Proceedings of the IMA Conference on Flood Risk Assessment, 117-126, IMA, Southend.<\/li>
          10. Lamb, R., Keef, C., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Surendran, S. and Meadowcroft, I. (2008). Spatial coherence in flood risk. DEFRA Conference paper.<\/li>
          11. Strudwick, T., Worth, D., McMillian, A., Laeger, S., Surrendan, S., Horsburgh, K., Blackman, D., Gubbin, A., Lawless, M. and Tawn, J.A. (2008). Development and dissemination of information on coastal and estuarine extremes. DEFRA Conference paper.<\/li>
          12. Keef, C., Lamb, R., Dunning, P. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2008). Multiscale probabilistic risk assessment. Conference paper for Flood Risk 2008.<\/li>
          13. Keef, C., Lamb, R., Tawn, J.A.<\/strong> and Laeger, S. (2010). A multivariate model for the broad scale spatial assessment of flood risk. In: Proc. BHS 2010 International Symp., Newcastle, July 2010. pp 234-239.<\/li>
          14. Lamb, R., Keef, C., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Laeger, S., Meadowcroft, I. and Surendran, S. (2010). Risk assessment for widespread flooding (or why ‘unprecedented’ floods happen so often). Proceedings of the 45th Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference, 5 – 7 July 2010, Telford, UK.<\/li>
          15. McMillan, A., Worth, D., Laeger, S., Hunt,T., Scott, A., Becker, M., Horsburgh, K., Lawless, M., Batstone, C., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>(2011). How high is high enough? – The art of assessing extreme conditions for effective coastal management. Proceedings of ICE Coastal Management Conference, Belfast.<\/li>
          16. Papastathopoulos, I. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2013). Graphical models for multivariate extremes. Greek Statistical Institute, Proceedings of 25th Panhellenic Statistics Conference, 315-323.<\/li>
          17. Towe, R., Eastoe, E. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Wu, Y., Jonathan, P. (2013). The extremal dependence of storm severity, wind speed and surface level pressure in the northern North Sea. To appear in Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering, OMAE2013-10154.<\/li>
          18. Towe, R., Tawn , J. A.<\/strong>, Lamb, R., Sherlock, C. and Liu, Y. (2016). Improving statistical models for flood risk assessment. E3S Web Conf. 7 01011, DOI: 10.1051\/e3sconf\/20160701011<\/li>
          19. Wood, E., Lamb, R., Warren, S., Hunter, N., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Allan, R., and Laeger, S. (2016). Development of large scale inland flood scenarios for disaster response planning based on spatial\/temporal conditional probability analysis FLOODRisk conference paper. In: E3S Web of Conferences. 7. doi.org\/10.1051\/e3sconf\/20160701003<\/li>
          20. Gabda, D. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2016). Inference for an extreme value model accounting for inter-site dependence. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1830, doi: http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1063\/1.4980985<\/li>
          21. Warren, S., Faulkner, D., Sharkey, P., Spencer, P., Longfield, S., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (2019). Towards incorporating physical covariates in nonstationary flood frequency analysis in the UK. IMA Flood Risk conference.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            Major Reports in the Public Domain<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
            \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
            1. Dixon, M. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1994). Estimates of extreme sea conditions. Extreme sea-levels at the UK A-class sites: site-by-site analyses, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory report, 65, 228 pages<\/li>
            2. Dixon, M. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1995). Estimates of extreme sea conditions. A spatial analysis of extreme sea-levels, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory report, 72, 299 pages.<\/li>
            3. Dixon, M. J. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1997). Spatial analyses for the UK, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory report, 112, 200 pages.<\/li>
            4. Bortot, P. and Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> (1998). Joint probability methods for extreme still water levels and waves. Part of HR Wallingford report, SR537, 234 pages.<\/li>
            5. Tawn, J. A.<\/strong> and Heffernan, J. E. (2001). Report on the Statistical Analysis of the Seakeeping Model Tests for a Cape Size Bulk Carrier. DTLR report.<\/li>
            6. McMillian, A., Batstone, C., Worth, D., Tawn, J. A.<\/strong>, Horsburgh, K. and Lawless, M. (2011). Coastal flood boundary conditions for UK mainland and islands. Project SC060064\/TR2: Design sea levels. Environment Agency.(34)<\/li>
            7. Lamb, R. and Tawn, J.A. <\/strong>(2017). Spatial joint probability for flood and coastal risk management and strategic assessments: Method report, vol. SC140002, R1 edn, Environment Agency, Bristol.<\/li><\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Methodological Journal Papers Tawn, J. A. (1988). Bivariate extreme value theory: models and estimation. Biometrika, 75, 397-415. Smith, R. L., Tawn, J. A. and Yuen, H. K. (1990). Statistics of multivariate extremes, Int. Statist. Rev., 58, 47-58. Tawn, J. A. (1990). Modelling multivariate extreme value distributions. Biometrika, 77, 245-253. Coles, S. G. and Tawn, J. A. (1990). Statistics of coastal flood…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":621,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"templates\/template-full-width.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-19","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/tawn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/19","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/tawn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/tawn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/tawn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/621"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/tawn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19"}],"version-history":[{"count":25,"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/tawn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/19\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":271,"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/tawn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/19\/revisions\/271"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/tawn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}