{"id":7959,"date":"2018-03-14T09:44:29","date_gmt":"2018-03-14T09:44:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sustainableagriculturewaitrose.org\/?p=7959"},"modified":"2018-03-14T09:44:29","modified_gmt":"2018-03-14T09:44:29","slug":"climate-change-risk-for-half-of-plant-and-animal-species-in-biodiversity-hot-spots","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/2018\/03\/14\/climate-change-risk-for-half-of-plant-and-animal-species-in-biodiversity-hot-spots\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change risk for half of plant and animal species in biodiversity hot-spots"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-7960\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/files\/2018\/03\/ENV-Rachel-Warren-wildlife-warming-East_Africa_Elephant_WW187782-credit-WWF-PR-Banner.jpg?resize=300%2C146\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"146\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/files\/2018\/03\/ENV-Rachel-Warren-wildlife-warming-East_Africa_Elephant_WW187782-credit-WWF-PR-Banner.jpg?resize=300%2C146&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/files\/2018\/03\/ENV-Rachel-Warren-wildlife-warming-East_Africa_Elephant_WW187782-credit-WWF-PR-Banner.jpg?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>Up to half of plant and animal species in the world\u2019s most naturally rich areas, such as the Amazon and the Galapagos, could face local extinction by the turn of the century due to climate change if carbon emissions continue to rise unchecked.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Amazon, Miombo Woodlands in Southern Africa, and south-west Australia are among the most affected places in the world, according to new research.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Even if the <a href=\"http:\/\/unfccc.int\/paris_agreement\/items\/9485.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Paris Climate Agreement<\/a> 2\u00b0C target is met, these places could lose 25% of their species according to a landmark new study by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.uea.ac.uk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">University of East Anglia<\/a> (UK), the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jcu.edu.au\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">James Cook University<\/a> (Australia), and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldwildlife.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">World Wildlife Fund<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-018-2158-6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Published today in the journal\u00a0<em>Climatic Change<\/em><\/a>\u00a0and just ahead of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.earthhour.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Earth Hour<\/a>, the world\u2019s largest environmental event, researchers examined the impact of climate change on nearly 80,000 plant and animal species in 35 of the world\u2019s most diverse and naturally wildlife-rich areas.<\/p>\n<p>The report explores a number of different climate change futures \u2013 from a no-emissions-cuts case in which global mean temperatures rise by 4.5\u00b0C (relative to pre-industrial times), to a \u00a02\u00b0C rise, the upper limit for temperature in the Paris Agreement. Each area was chosen for its uniqueness and the variety of plants and animals found there.<\/p>\n<p>It finds that the Miombo Woodlands home to African wild dogs, south-west Australia and the Amazon-Guianas are projected to be some the most affected areas. If there was a 4.5\u00b0C global mean temperature rise, the climates in these areas are projected to become unsuitable for many the plants and animals that currently live there meaning:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Up to 90% of amphibians, 86% of birds and 80% of mammals could potentially become locally extinct in the Miombo Woodlands, Southern Africa<\/li>\n<li>The Amazon could lose 69% of its plant species<\/li>\n<li>In south-west Australia 89% of amphibians could become locally extinct<\/li>\n<li>60% of all species are at risk of localised extinction in Madagascar<\/li>\n<li>The Fynbos in the Western Cape Region of South Africa, which is experiencing a drought that has led to water shortages in Cape Town, could face localised extinctions of a third of its species, many of which are unique to that region.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As well as this, increased average temperatures and more erratic rainfall could become be the \u201cnew normal\u201d according to the report &#8211; with significantly less rainfall in the Mediterranean, Madagascar and the Cerrado-Pantanal in Argentina. Potential effects include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Pressure on the water supplies of African elephants \u2013 who need to drink 150-300 litres of water a day<\/li>\n<li>96% of the breeding grounds of Sundarbans tigers could become submerged by sea-level rise<\/li>\n<li>Comparatively fewer male marine turtles due to temperature-induced sex assignment of eggs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If species can move freely to new locations then the risk of local extinction decreases from around 25% to 20% with a 2\u00b0C global mean temperature rise. \u00a0If species cannot they may not be able to survive. Most plants, amphibians and reptiles, such as orchids, frogs and lizards cannot move quickly enough to keep up with these climatic changes.<\/p>\n<p>Lead researcher <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tyndall.ac.uk\/people\/rachel-warren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Prof Rachel Warren<\/a> from the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.tyndall.ac.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research<\/a> at UEA said: \u201cOur research quantifies the benefits of limiting global warming to 2\u00b0C for species in 35 of the world\u2019s most wildlife-rich areas.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe studied 80,000 species of plants, mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians and found that 50% of species could be lost from these areas without climate policy. However, if global warming is limited to 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, this could be reduced to 25%.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLimiting warming to within 1.5\u00b0C was not explored, but would be expected to protect even more wildlife,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n<p>Overall the research shows that the best way to protect against species loss is to keep global temperature rise as low as possible. The Paris Agreement pledges to reduce the expected level of global warming from 4.5\u00b0C to around 3\u00b0C, which reduces the impacts, but we see even greater improvements at 2\u00b0C; and it is likely that limiting temperature rise to 1.5\u00b0C would protect more wildlife.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wwf.org.uk\/tanya-steele\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tanya Steele<\/a>, CEO of WWF said: \u201cWithin our children\u2019s lifetime, places like the Amazon and Galapagos Islands could become unrecognisable, with half the species that live there wiped out by human-caused climate change.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAround the world, beautiful iconic animals like Amur tigers or Javan rhinos are at risk of disappearing, as well as tens of thousands plants and smaller creatures that are the foundation of all life on earth. That is why this Earth Hour we are asking everyone to make a promise for the planet and make the everyday changes to protect our planet.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The models used in this research come from the <a href=\"http:\/\/wallaceinitiative.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Wallace Initiative<\/a>, a near decade long partnership between the Tyndall Centre at UEA, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jcu.edu.au\/eresearch\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">eResearch<\/a> at James Cook University, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gbif.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Global Biodiversity Information Facility<\/a> and WWF.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tyndall.ac.uk\/people\/jeff-price\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Dr Jeff Price<\/a>, coordinator of the Wallace Initiative and also from UEA, said: \u201cThis research provides a view on the differing spatial impacts of climate change on biodiversity. It shows the benefits of combining citizen science with the research and resources of highly-ranked universities to assist an NGO with their conservation activities.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Read the paper in <em>Climatic Change<\/em>:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-018-2158-6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas<\/a> (Open Access).<\/p>\n<p><em>Article source\/image credit: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.uea.ac.uk\/about\/-\/climate-change-risk-for-half-of-plant-and-animal-species-in-biodiversity-hot-spots\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">UEA<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p class=\"excerpt\">Up to half of plant and animal species in the world\u2019s most naturally rich areas, such as the Amazon and the Galapagos, could face local extinction by the turn of the century due to climate change if carbon emissions continue to rise unchecked. The Amazon, Miombo Woodlands in Southern Africa, and south-west Australia are among [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":381,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[72,185,242,245,354,375,407,506,510,617,846,900,941,1127,1168,1170,1190,1252,1285,1289],"class_list":["post-7959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-press-release","tag-animals","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-climate-change","tag-climatic-change","tag-dr-jeff-price","tag-earth-hour","tag-eresearch","tag-global-biodiversity-information-facility","tag-global-warming","tag-james-cook-university","tag-paris-agreement","tag-plants","tag-professor-rachel-warren","tag-tanya-steele","tag-tyndall-centre","tag-uea","tag-university-of-east-anglia","tag-wallace-initiative","tag-world-wildlife-fund","tag-wwf"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/381"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7959"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7959\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/sustainable-agriculture\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}