{"id":414,"date":"2023-01-19T13:10:07","date_gmt":"2023-01-19T13:10:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/energyflexibilitygallery\/?page_id=414"},"modified":"2023-01-19T13:10:55","modified_gmt":"2023-01-19T13:10:55","slug":"how-much-storage-do-we-need-in-a-fully-electrified-future-transcript","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/wp.lancs.ac.uk\/energyflexibilitygallery\/how-much-storage-do-we-need-in-a-fully-electrified-future-transcript\/","title":{"rendered":"How much storage do we need in a fully electrified future? – Transcript"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Policymaker: I can\u2019t believe this is happening again. We\u2019re heading towards yet another energy crisis! This is getting ridiculous. We have to start thinking ahead \u2013 we can\u2019t be caught out like this again.<\/p>\n

Advisor: I agree, but what can we do?<\/p>\n

Policymaker: I don\u2019t know, but it\u2019s only going to get worse.\u00a0 We\u2019re supposed to be moving towards a fully electrified system that is increasingly reliant on renewable energy.\u00a0 I don\u2019t know how we are going to cope. At the moment we can use different fuels to manage peaks and troughs in demand – but they cost a fortune!<\/p>\n

Advisor: I see what you mean.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Just imagine being more dependent on renewables and then the weather changes or demand rises.\u00a0 The price would be impossibly high!<\/p>\n

Advisor: I agree, the electorate would definitely have something to say about that.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Exactly. Everyone tells me that storage is the answer, but how much are we going to need in a fully electrified future. Someone must know.<\/p>\n

Advisor: I think we should get some expert advice on this.\u00a0 Shall I invite some scientists in to tell us what to do?<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Yes, absolutely, we\u2019re always led by science.<\/p>\n

Advisor: Alright, I\u2019ll set up some meetings.<\/p>\n

\u2026<\/p>\n

Our first expert has arrived, shall I bring him in?<\/p>\n

\u2026<\/p>\n

So, this is Mike, and Mike\u2019s made a model of the future energy system.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Thank you for coming in today, Mike. Let\u2019s cut to the chase.\u00a0 I want to know how much storage we need in a fully electrified future?<\/p>\n

Mike: Well, I\u2019ve been doing some calculations\u2026<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Great!<\/p>\n

Mike: I estimated technical potential, multiplied it by use and added some sensitivity analysis\u2026<\/p>\n

Policymaker: OK\u2026<\/p>\n

Mike: \u2026and the answer is 51. You need 51 TWh of storage capacity.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Er, is that for the whole country?<\/p>\n

Mike: Yes, my model deals with the whole of the UK \u2013 that\u2019s what you want wasn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Yeah, but how can there be just one answer?<\/p>\n

Mike: Well, 51 is an average figure for the year. I\u2019ve explained my calculations and the answer is 51. \u00a0\u00a0I\u2019ve obviously made some assumptions, but that\u2019s what modelling involves.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: \u00a0Of course, you are the expert. But from my understanding, demand changes over time. There are some times of the day and year where demand is higher than others \u2013 like evenings, and Christmas. \u00a0And what if people hang on to their gas central heating?<\/p>\n

Mike: Sorry, I thought you wanted one simple answer. According to my calculations, if you have 51 TWh of storage capacity, you\u2019ll have enough.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: OK, so how would we do that? From what I hear, we can\u2019t use batteries to handle changes in demand over the year.<\/p>\n

Mike: Well to be honest, that\u2019s not my area.\u00a0 You\u2019d have to talk with an engineer about that.<\/p>\n

Advisor: Right well I think that\u2019s it, thanks Mike, thanks for your time. \u00a0Let me show you out.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Well, he did give us an answer, I guess.<\/p>\n

Advisor: That\u2019s true, but what good is 51 if we don\u2019t know what it means or what we should do? Maybe Erica will be more helpful.\u00a0 Erica knows all about electric vehicles.<\/p>\n

\u2026<\/p>\n

Welcome Erica, you\u2019ve already been briefed on the question so let\u2019s get stuck in straight away.<\/p>\n

Erica:\u00a0 Yes, thanks for inviting me along. I believe you\u2019re interested in storage in a fully electrified future?<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Exactly that, yes.<\/p>\n

Erica: My research shows that electric vehicles are the key to a fully electrified future. \u00a0If you increase the number of electric vehicles, you increase the capacity for storage: it\u2019s as simple as that.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Er, I\u2019m not sure I understand. I thought that the increase in electric vehicles was part of the problem. If many more people use electric vehicles, won\u2019t we need more power, and more storage?<\/p>\n

Erica: That\u2019s partly right, but don\u2019t forget more electric vehicles mean more batteries, and that increases the country\u2019s storage capacity. Cars are in standby for most of the day \u2013 just think of all that storage capacity you could use.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: But surely, we can\u2019t just simply add up the number of electric vehicles and assume that they all provide usable storage?<\/p>\n

Erica: Why not?<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Isn\u2019t it a bit more complicated than that? If people use electric vehicles for making journeys at times when renewables are generating electricity, they\u2019ll be consuming energy, not storing it \u2013 and from what I\u2019ve heard we can\u2019t be sure what trips people will make or when?<\/p>\n

Erica: Journeys do make it a bit more complicated. But if you\u2019re just considering storage potential, I think you\u2019ll find electric vehicles are a very promising way forward.<\/p>\n

Advisor: Sorry Erica, thanks again for your time, but we\u2019ve just got to move on. Er we\u2019ve another scientist waiting.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Yes, thank you Erica, safe journey home.<\/p>\n

Advisor: OK we\u2019ve got Sarah next.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Welcome Sarah, and thanks for joining us. We\u2019re trying to work out how much storage we need in a fully electrified future. What is your answer?<\/p>\n

Sarah: Sorry to be awkward, but that\u2019s not a question that anyone can answer.\u00a0 For a start, energy demand is not fixed for all time and it\u2019s almost certainly going to change in the years ahead<\/p>\n

Policymaker: What do you mean?<\/p>\n

Sarah: I mean we can only answer your question if we estimate future demand. The modellers and experts you\u2019ve talked with almost certainly suppose that the future is going to be like the present.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Yeah, that\u2019s right. That\u2019s exactly what they do.<\/p>\n

Sarah: But I problem is this.\u00a0 If you work with their estimates, you will end up designing a system that meets present demand.\u00a0 You need to think about this.\u00a0 Should you be replicating and reproducing current demand if you want to dig yourself out of a high carbon emissions hole?<\/p>\n

Policymaker: OK, so if I\u2019m getting this right, what you\u2019re saying is that if we suppose the future is like the present, we\u2019ll inadvertently make that come about.<\/p>\n

Sarah: Exactly!<\/p>\n

Policymaker: That means we need to imagine a lower carbon future before we can begin to think about storage. Is that right?<\/p>\n

Sarah: Yes.\u00a0 Rather than working forward from the present to the future, you\u2019re going to have to work backwards. It\u2019s only when you have a sense of a less demanding way of life that you can estimate the need for storage.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: I want to avoid future energy crises, so tell me, what should I do? What questions should I ask?<\/p>\n

Sarah: \u00a0First you need to think about the patterns of energy consumption you are helping to shape.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: OK, so how do I do that?<\/p>\n

Sarah: I\u2019m not sure this is something you can do by yourself. \u00a0Many areas of policy have a hand in what people do at home, at work and in moving around \u2013 all of which matters for future demand.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Um, I\u2019m not sure I\u2019m following.<\/p>\n

Sarah: Well, I\u2019m saying that peaks and troughs in demand depend on societal rhythms of work, commuting, schooling, eating, and sleeping. And I\u2019m saying that these are made by many organisations, acting together.\u00a0 I\u2019m not saying energy policy is irrelevant, but it is only part of the picture.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: You mean I need to talk with other policymakers and I need to recognise that we are all involved in making and changing patterns of energy demand \u2013 and the need for storage associated with them.<\/p>\n

Sarah. Yes, a good way of putting it.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: Hm, I\u2019ve clearly got lot more work to do, but I feel like I am on the right track.<\/p>\n

Advisor: That\u2019s it, our time is up.\u00a0 Thank you, Sarah, I\u2019ll see you out.<\/p>\n

\u2026<\/p>\n

I\u2019m sorry that was my mistake.\u00a0 Sarah must be some kind of social scientist and you know what they\u2019re like \u2013 always re-framing the question and never giving anyone a straight answer.<\/p>\n

Policymaker: No, not at all.\u00a0 I thought she was really very helpful \u2013 and she\u2019s quite right.\u00a0 If we are to avert future energy crises we need to talk with other ministries. We need to understand how governments shape demand, and we need to do that as urgently as possible; otherwise, we can’t even begin to think how much storage we’ll need, and where it’s going to come from.<\/p>\n

Advisor: Oh, alright then, should I set up some meetings?<\/p>\n

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