Policymaker: I can’t believe this is happening again. We’re heading towards yet another energy crisis! This is getting ridiculous. We have to start thinking ahead – we can’t be caught out like this again.

Advisor: I agree, but what can we do?

Policymaker: I don’t know, but it’s only going to get worse.  We’re supposed to be moving towards a fully electrified system that is increasingly reliant on renewable energy.  I don’t know how we are going to cope. At the moment we can use different fuels to manage peaks and troughs in demand – but they cost a fortune!

Advisor: I see what you mean.

Policymaker: Just imagine being more dependent on renewables and then the weather changes or demand rises.  The price would be impossibly high!

Advisor: I agree, the electorate would definitely have something to say about that.

Policymaker: Exactly. Everyone tells me that storage is the answer, but how much are we going to need in a fully electrified future. Someone must know.

Advisor: I think we should get some expert advice on this.  Shall I invite some scientists in to tell us what to do?

Policymaker: Yes, absolutely, we’re always led by science.

Advisor: Alright, I’ll set up some meetings.

…

Our first expert has arrived, shall I bring him in?

…

So, this is Mike, and Mike’s made a model of the future energy system.

Policymaker: Thank you for coming in today, Mike. Let’s cut to the chase.  I want to know how much storage we need in a fully electrified future?

Mike: Well, I’ve been doing some calculations…

Policymaker: Great!

Mike: I estimated technical potential, multiplied it by use and added some sensitivity analysis…

Policymaker: OK…

Mike: …and the answer is 51. You need 51 TWh of storage capacity.

Policymaker: Er, is that for the whole country?

Mike: Yes, my model deals with the whole of the UK – that’s what you want wasn’t it?

Policymaker: Yeah, but how can there be just one answer?

Mike: Well, 51 is an average figure for the year. I’ve explained my calculations and the answer is 51.   I’ve obviously made some assumptions, but that’s what modelling involves.

Policymaker:  Of course, you are the expert. But from my understanding, demand changes over time. There are some times of the day and year where demand is higher than others – like evenings, and Christmas.  And what if people hang on to their gas central heating?

Mike: Sorry, I thought you wanted one simple answer. According to my calculations, if you have 51 TWh of storage capacity, you’ll have enough.

Policymaker: OK, so how would we do that? From what I hear, we can’t use batteries to handle changes in demand over the year.

Mike: Well to be honest, that’s not my area.  You’d have to talk with an engineer about that.

Advisor: Right well I think that’s it, thanks Mike, thanks for your time.  Let me show you out.

Policymaker: Well, he did give us an answer, I guess.

Advisor: That’s true, but what good is 51 if we don’t know what it means or what we should do? Maybe Erica will be more helpful.  Erica knows all about electric vehicles.

…

Welcome Erica, you’ve already been briefed on the question so let’s get stuck in straight away.

Erica:  Yes, thanks for inviting me along. I believe you’re interested in storage in a fully electrified future?

Policymaker: Exactly that, yes.

Erica: My research shows that electric vehicles are the key to a fully electrified future.  If you increase the number of electric vehicles, you increase the capacity for storage: it’s as simple as that.

Policymaker: Er, I’m not sure I understand. I thought that the increase in electric vehicles was part of the problem. If many more people use electric vehicles, won’t we need more power, and more storage?

Erica: That’s partly right, but don’t forget more electric vehicles mean more batteries, and that increases the country’s storage capacity. Cars are in standby for most of the day – just think of all that storage capacity you could use.

Policymaker: But surely, we can’t just simply add up the number of electric vehicles and assume that they all provide usable storage?

Erica: Why not?

Policymaker: Isn’t it a bit more complicated than that? If people use electric vehicles for making journeys at times when renewables are generating electricity, they’ll be consuming energy, not storing it – and from what I’ve heard we can’t be sure what trips people will make or when?

Erica: Journeys do make it a bit more complicated. But if you’re just considering storage potential, I think you’ll find electric vehicles are a very promising way forward.

Advisor: Sorry Erica, thanks again for your time, but we’ve just got to move on. Er we’ve another scientist waiting.

Policymaker: Yes, thank you Erica, safe journey home.

Advisor: OK we’ve got Sarah next.

Policymaker: Welcome Sarah, and thanks for joining us. We’re trying to work out how much storage we need in a fully electrified future. What is your answer?

Sarah: Sorry to be awkward, but that’s not a question that anyone can answer.  For a start, energy demand is not fixed for all time and it’s almost certainly going to change in the years ahead

Policymaker: What do you mean?

Sarah: I mean we can only answer your question if we estimate future demand. The modellers and experts you’ve talked with almost certainly suppose that the future is going to be like the present.

Policymaker: Yeah, that’s right. That’s exactly what they do.

Sarah: But I problem is this.  If you work with their estimates, you will end up designing a system that meets present demand.  You need to think about this.  Should you be replicating and reproducing current demand if you want to dig yourself out of a high carbon emissions hole?

Policymaker: OK, so if I’m getting this right, what you’re saying is that if we suppose the future is like the present, we’ll inadvertently make that come about.

Sarah: Exactly!

Policymaker: That means we need to imagine a lower carbon future before we can begin to think about storage. Is that right?

Sarah: Yes.  Rather than working forward from the present to the future, you’re going to have to work backwards. It’s only when you have a sense of a less demanding way of life that you can estimate the need for storage.

Policymaker: I want to avoid future energy crises, so tell me, what should I do? What questions should I ask?

Sarah:  First you need to think about the patterns of energy consumption you are helping to shape.

Policymaker: OK, so how do I do that?

Sarah: I’m not sure this is something you can do by yourself.  Many areas of policy have a hand in what people do at home, at work and in moving around – all of which matters for future demand.

Policymaker: Um, I’m not sure I’m following.

Sarah: Well, I’m saying that peaks and troughs in demand depend on societal rhythms of work, commuting, schooling, eating, and sleeping. And I’m saying that these are made by many organisations, acting together.  I’m not saying energy policy is irrelevant, but it is only part of the picture.

Policymaker: You mean I need to talk with other policymakers and I need to recognise that we are all involved in making and changing patterns of energy demand – and the need for storage associated with them.

Sarah. Yes, a good way of putting it.

Policymaker: Hm, I’ve clearly got lot more work to do, but I feel like I am on the right track.

Advisor: That’s it, our time is up.  Thank you, Sarah, I’ll see you out.

…

I’m sorry that was my mistake.  Sarah must be some kind of social scientist and you know what they’re like – always re-framing the question and never giving anyone a straight answer.

Policymaker: No, not at all.  I thought she was really very helpful – and she’s quite right.  If we are to avert future energy crises we need to talk with other ministries. We need to understand how governments shape demand, and we need to do that as urgently as possible; otherwise, we can’t even begin to think how much storage we’ll need, and where it’s going to come from.

Advisor: Oh, alright then, should I set up some meetings?